Taxing safer alternatives backfires, pushing users back to deadly cigarettes

STOCKHOLM,  Major new research has delivered a stark warning to governments considering punitive taxes on safer nicotine alternatives: when lower-risk products are made less affordable, most users return to smoking cigarettes, with potentially devastating public-health consequences.

A study of Chinese adults who vape found that 68% stopped vaping after a 2022 e-cigarette tax increase. Alarmingly, around three-quarters of those former vapers switched to smoking far more harmful cigarettes instead.

“This research should be essential reading for anyone seeking to hike taxes on safer nicotine alternatives,” said Dr Delon Human, former secretary-general of the World Medical Association. 

“Policies presented as protecting public health may do the exact opposite, driving people away from lower-risk products and back to the most dangerous option: combustible cigarettes.”

Cigarettes remain the deadliest form of nicotine use, responsible for the overwhelming majority of tobacco-related disease and death worldwide. In contrast, safer smoke-free products such as vapes and oral nicotine pouches are accelerating the decline of smoking in countries like Sweden.

Dr Human, leader of Smoke Free Sweden, said the Chinese findings add to a growing body of international evidence showing that poorly designed tax policy can reverse hard-won progress in reducing smoking rates.

That warning comes as lawmakers in Brussels prepare sweeping tax hikes on safer nicotine alternatives across Europe. According to leaked proposals, Sweden’s current excise duty of SEK 207 per kilogram on nicotine pouches would surge to nearly SEK 1,600 per kilogram – a 700% increase.

While taxation is often used to deter harmful consumption, the Chinese research shows that imposing high taxes on reduced-risk products can produce massive net harm.

Dr Human concluded with a blunt warning:
“When governments collapse the price gap between safer alternatives and cigarettes, people don’t quit nicotine – they relapse to smoking. 

“Sweden has shown the way by taxing according to risk and making smoke-free options accessible, acceptable and affordable. Ignore this evidence, and policymakers will be choosing higher smoking rates, more disease and more preventable deaths.”